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The convex payoff structure of prop firm accounts makes it possible to extract positive expected value net of challenge and activation fees, if you model the process—end-to-end—as a structured product. There’s obviously not an analytic solution to this optimization, but Monte Carlo simulation makes it possible to understand the optimal risk geometry for these accounts, and it allows us to determine the exact probability of passing, and net expected value, of a given strategy, given a backtest of its trades. This is how to pass a prop firm account challenge, and extract maximum net EV, even with a 0 (or low) expected value strategy.
#propfirm #math #trading #quant
0:00 Prop Firm Math Reality
0:27 Why Prop Strategies Don’t Need Positive EV
1:04 Prop Firms as Structured Products
1:46 Convex Payoff
2:58 Risk Geometry Model
4:12 Toy Strategy Results
5:55 Real Strategy Example
7:23 Modeling the Funded Phase
8:15 Takeaways